TG Watkins – Trading the Trump Trend and Parabolic Precious Metals
In this daily editorial, TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of the Profit Pilot, analyzes the explosive start to 2026. As political headlines from the Trump administration drive massive sector rotations, TG discusses how his technical process identifies institutional “footprints” beneath the noise.
From the sudden reversal in homebuilders to the vertical moves in silver and gold, we explore how to manage risk in parabolic markets. TG also provides a preview of his “State of the Markets” presentation (happening tomorrow, January 13th), where he will dive deeper into the recovery of small caps, the potential bottoming in cannabis and crypto, and the technical indicators signaling a shift away from Mega-Cap Tech.
Key discussion points:
- Bullish Small Caps & Broad Market Rotation: TG highlights a healthy shift away from mega-cap tech into small caps (IWM), mid-caps (MDY), and equal-weight indexes (RSP). This is fueled by a “sweet spot” of low unemployment and an increasingly dovish Fed.
- Homebuilder Resilience: Despite restrictive housing policy headlines, homebuilders (XHB/NAIL) showed strong institutional “footprints” and technical reversals, signaling that the lower interest rate environment is the primary driver for the sector.
- Precious Metals Velocity: Silver has entered a parabolic phase, skyrocketing from $50 to over $80 in a month. TG cautions that while the trend is intact on the hourly 50 SMA, the vertical move lacks technical support levels, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal.
- Crypto & Cannabis Bottoming: TG sees “percolating” strength and a double-bottom pattern forming in Bitcoin and Ethereum, alongside renewed interest in the cannabis sector following recent reclassifications.
Click here to visit TG’s site – Profit Pilot – https://www.profit-pilot.com/
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
For somebody who is always complaining about corruption and theft you aren’t very smart when you make a post like the one you just made above. You are setting yourself up to be a mark. DT
I do not understand a thing you said but I will send you half of it. The check is in the mail. Please contact Schwab if it fails to clear.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5bDGtNb0/
DOLLAR : Current AB.CD = 99.775
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YtmEYTkK/
NatGas : Pull Back : Gartley C Soon?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EQjdG47o/
NatGas (BOIL): Buy Back Zone
Sold, with gain. Flat.
Silver, 30m, breakout again…
Matthew. Don’t waste your time responding with small fry players who are happy with their 10% returns selling covered calls….. I’ve been here long enough to know what you bring to the table and how you play certain stocks like Impact and Brixton. Accumulate when out of favour and setting up for moves. Speaking of which I’m sure you recently reloaded up again in Brixton at .055-.06 range. Recent volumes are telling. Another move up in it coming this spring. Cheers.
Thanks Wolfster. Don’t forget all that Defiance Silver I bought this year! It’s up over 30% this week…
https://schrts.co/kCDasTys
I recently took a position in New Break. Sounds like a real deposit just a question how big. Noticed the hedgless horseman posted there last night. Perhaps he mentions it in an up coming interview…..or maybe Ex reaches out them for an introductory interview. 😉
In regards to HydroGraph, we had a news release exactly a week ago today, it was a teaser and the stock promptly moved up. When we get the next tidbit of news anything could happen, it is extremely volatile but I like volatility it is a traders dream. However like Jesse Livermore was fond of saying, “The Big Gains Are Made In The Waiting!” DT 😊
And it was Tom Petty who sang “the waiting is the hardest part”….😉
HydroGraph (HGRAF) must hold 2.20 support.
Well, whoever is building the wall of worry for silver miners has done as good a job as possible under the circumstances. Yes, they are up significantly in nominal terms, but relative to silver they have been absolutely crushed since October (and really over the last 50+ years).
If I wasn’t knee deep in silver miners I would probably enjoy seeing how this crazy underperformance resolves itself in the coming months, as a student of markets.
The long term underperformance makes perfect sense but it’s changing now. CDE for example has ended a 20 year downtrend and for good reason.
The likes of IPT and DEF are ready to fly against silver for weeks and months to come and volumes this week have been huge so far. 7.3M shares of DEF in less than 2 hours today and almost 6M for IPT. That’s the changing of the guard as the Terry Huebert’s of the space use this strength to sell out completely.
Until CDE/silver exceeds its 2021 high, the jury is still out for me.
We do have the possibility of an inverse head and shoulders bottom, so there is that, but we are most likely going to spend another month or two around these lows, or lower, to build out the right shoulder.
One has to ask though why the relative performance of the PM miners has been so abysmal over the last half century (which is as far back as my charts go). I think it may be something structural about the business of mining money and then selling that money for depreciating fiat. There is something inherently wrong with that.
GDX/GLD is far closer to a major break out than silver miners vs silver, so I assume the gold miners will lead the way.
For many reasons, the jury has not been out for me since early 2024. Mark my words, this bull will be unlike any we’ve experienced or read about.
Well, I appreciate your bullishness. I just need to see a modicum of confirmation–e.g., taking out multiyear peaks, like 2016 and 2020.
Do you think these two can catch SCZ and AGX? And others that have left them way behind
Not sure where I last left off but been adding Canadian Copper for months (largest position) and new adds with Perserverance, Kingfisher, Galantas (still halted), Aeonian Res and Domestic Metals.
Concentration in Magna Mining, Northisle, Emo, Hydrograph,Canadian Copper, Talon,San Lorenzo, Southern Silver, Impact. Also holding Banyan, Group Eleven, Theralase, Magma Terra, Tier One,Big Ridge, Bitterroot, Soltice, District,Sitka, Radisson, Astra Explor, Adina Copper, Stillwater critical, ,Pacific Empire,
Obviously several entry positions but still am holding and watching. Maybe some ideas among them.
Turkiye & Gold …… Could this happen in America !!!?
It is probably a US test program if it has anything to do with banks/corporations profiting off someone else’s property.
Where to go/what to do to avoid governmemt interference in peoples’ business.
El Salvador, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, Greenland and Epstein Island. All calm.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2kr4wNrw/
DOLLAR : Pushing North : Aurora?
Short Silver (PMs).
An interesting close today for IPT:CDE…
https://schrts.co/FAQhZTzC
For a few seconds I had a good day with Schwab (again). This time instead of one stock going up in the millions, my whole account with about 45 stocks… they all went into the millions. Then reset …maybe they were just estimating my end of week account value. (It happened again. I was disappointed as it was only $75 million total)